Jan

16

Mortgage Predictions for 2012

Posted by laurakaan under Uncategorized

It’s the time of year that we look ahead and attempt to give our best guesses about the market, the industry, and the effects they may have. So, here are my thoughts about the mortgage world:

Interest Rates Should Be Stable

With a faltering economy nationally and worldwide, including pessimistic estimates for employment, there is little chance that the Fed will risk increasing rates which would jeopardize any recovery. Couple that with a Presidential Election in November and conventional wisdom says we’ll see rates hovering in the same neighborhood for most of 2012.

Mortgage Costs Will Increase

Quietly tucked away in those bills passed in Congress to extend the payroll tax cuts before the holidays was an increase of 10 basis points in the guarantee fees on loans sold to Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. That will translate into .10% higher interest rates (which would be $4000 extra on a $200,000 loan over 30 years). Interestingly enough, the additional revenue is not going to Fannie or Freddie to help with defaulted loans, but rather going to the US Treasury to make up for the payroll tax cut….go figure.

The Mortgage Interest Deduction Will Be Challenged

Look for people of a certain income level to lose their write off as a measure to increase revenue. Taking away from the wealthy as a way to raise governmental revenue is politically strategic. It is unlikely everyone will lose the deduction (political suicide), but that top 1%…watch out.

Loan Products Will Expand

Common sense lending will start creeping back. Large down payments will liberalize credit and income standards. This will likely begin with local banks who are comfortable with appraised values. I’m not calling for a return to the madness, but some loans that are low risk are not being done today. Anticipate some lenders expanding their guidelines.

Don’t be shocked by a lowering of FHA loan limits and/or an increase in the FHA Up Front Mortgage Insurance Premium either. Overall, mortgages should give people more reasons to buy homes in 2012 as the economic recovery is strongly tied to housing. Given that most people vote their own personal economy rather than policy beliefs, I expect support by those who are looking to be re-elected.

Written By: Dean Hartman; KCM Blog

For more information on Colorado Springs Real Estate contact your Colorado Springs RealtorLaura Kaan today!

Builder Magazine’s list of Healthiest Housing Markets recently came out ranking Colorado Springs at number 7 in the nation. These figures are based on population growth, projected price appreciation, and improving employment rates.

Click the link before for more information:

http://realtormag.realtor.org/daily-news/2011/11/07/8-healthiest-housing-markets

Parenting magazine recently ranked Colorado Springs in their Top 20 cities to raise a family. In fact, it is the only city in Colorado to make the list. Follow the link for more info:  http://www.gazette.com/articles/parenting-121993-top-magazine.html  For more information on Colorado Springs, and how you can get started building your nest egg, contact the Laura Kaan Team today!

With many housing markets still experiencing price declines, Colorado Springs was recently ranked as one of the top 10 large metro areas that will record the largest price gains in 2012 by CNNMoney.com.   The article highlights what they consider to be the top 10 housing market recovery bets for 2012. It credits our stable economy, strong demand for housing, an increasing population, affordability, and that Colorado Springs remains a popular city for the potential housing price appreciation. In 2010 the Colorado Springs housing market experienced an increase in the average sales price compared to 2009, and our housing market continues to remain healthy with solid forecasts for 2011 and 2012.

Colorado Springs receives positive media press on a regular making many of the national “Top City” lists.  Recently Colorado Springs was listed as number 14 for the “100 Safest Cities in America” list by FreeBackgroundChecksUSA .   This list used data from the FBI™s Uniform Crime Report data compared to the city population.   They only considered cities with a population greater than 170,000.  

To preview more œTop City lists including a video of Colorado Springs on the CBS News, visit our websites Colorado Springs Information  page.

The public is constantly bombarded with conflicting information about the state of the U.S. housing market. Are we experiencing a housing recovery and now is the time to buy a home, or is the real estate market still suffering with no end in site? No one truly has that crystal ball, and the only way to know for sure when the housing bottom happened is long after we are on the way up. Unfortunately for you, the news media makes money through dramatic and often misleading headlines that can only lead to fear and confusion. So what are the experts really saying about the market? Karl E. Case (co-creator of the Standard & Poor’s Case-Shiller housing index – an index that track housing price appreciation and depreciation in many of our larger cities), The Wall Street Journal, and Fannie Mae, have all recently published articles stating that now is the time to buy. So should you listen to the media or the experts?

Carl Case and the Case-Shiller Index is considered by many as the premier expert in the real estate market price trends for the U.S. On September 1st, 2010, The New York Times published the article, “A Dream House After All” by Carl E. Case. Carl states, “It means having a solid and fairly safe long-term investment that is coupled with the satisfaction of owning the house they live in. The dream is still alive… For people with a realistic version of the American Dream, buying a house now can make a lot of sense.”

Fannie Mae also released positive information regarding consumer sentiment of the housing market and price trends in their most recent National Housing Survey. Their results concluded the following:

1.Eight in ten respondents consider homeownership important to the economy. 2.Nearly two-thirds of respondents think it is a good time to buy a house, and nearly 1 in 3 think now is a very good time to buy a house.

3.Nearly three-quarters think housing prices will go up or stay the same over the next year.

4.Seven out of ten respondents said that they believe buying a home continues to be one of the safest investments available.

Finally, the Wall Street Journal recently posted the article, “10 Reason To Buy a Home – Enough with the doom and gloom about homeownership.” Here is the condensed version of the 10 reasons that The Wall Street Journal mentioned;

1. You can get a good deal

2.Mortgages are cheap

3.You can save on taxes

4.It will be yours

5.You’ll get a better home

6.If offers some inflation protection

7.It’s risk capital

8.It’s forced savings

9.There is a lot to choose from

10.Sooner or later, the market will clear

You most likely won’t hear these positive housing market viewpoints in the nightly news or on the front cover of your newspaper. When considering if you should purchase a home in today’s market you should tune out the conflicting media talking points that are not created for your best interest. Instead you should focus on what is best for you and your family along with your local market conditions.   Real estate is very localizes  and  The Colorado Springs real estate market will be much  different than a market like Las Vegas.  Now more than ever, home buyers and sellers need the guidance of an experienced REALTOR to help them navigate the purchase or sale of their home.

No one in the media can tell you whether or not now is the right time for you to buy a home, yet many of the experts believe that right now is an ideal time for many to purchase a home. History proves that we are not often presented the opportunities that we are seeing today for buyers. Lower housing prices, historically low mortgage rates, a lot of homes to choose from, and an edge in negotiating price and terms that benefit the buyer, makes now the ideal time to purchase a home for many.

Based on the graph below, the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has reached its lowest point, in over 30 years. This is encouraging news for people looking to buy, because lower rates help make a new transaction more affordable. Low rates mean stable payments and long-term savings; both, making right now the perfect time to start building your nest egg!

Colorado Springs homes sales strengthened in the 1st Half of 2010. Overall sales increased by 10% year over year. While supply has slightly increased, demand continues to increase as well. With interest rates at a historical low, more buyers are entering the market; leading it to a more “standard” condition.  The Laura Kaan Team works hard to understand the overall market conditions, which enables us to better serve our clients & empower them to stay ahead of the market. For more statistics on the current market, please reference my Colorado Springs real estate Market Trends page.

Colorado Springs homes sales continued to strengthen in the 1st quarter of 2010. Year over year, sales increased by over 18%, with a continued decrease in overall inventory. As a result of decreasing supply, and increasing demand, our market continues to return to its “standard” condition. In the low-mid priced markets, supply has greatly decreased and demand has increased. With historically low interest rates, and lower prices, more buyers are entering the market. With declining inventory levels in many price points, sellers now   have more leverage to position their home to sell more quickly at a reasonable price.

Qualified service members, who have been on extended duty for 90 days or more between January 1, 2009 and April 30, 2010, now have a one year extension on the Tax Credit Deadline. These buyers have until April 30, 2011 to sign a sales contract and until June 30, 2011 to close on a property. Qualified buyers must be a member of of the uniformed services of the U.S. military, a member of the Foreign Service of the U.S., or an employee of the intelligence community. Congress has also acknowledged the unique circumstances affecting service members by waiving the rule that requires buyers to repay the credit if they receive government orders to move out of their home within 3 years.

If you are searching for homes located in the boundaries of Academy School District 20 take a look at our School District 20 resource page.   This resource allows you to search for homes for sale in D20, provides market trend information and School District 20 information and links along with an interactive school search map.

Homes sales in the Colorado Springs region in the 4th quarter of 2009 continued to strengthen as we experienced our largest number of sales during the quarter since 2006.   Year over year, sales were up 33% in the 4th QTR while total inventory was down 20%!    This surge in sales is a very positive sign of a return of buyers to the market. Homes sales during the entire year was up 5% compared to 2008.   Sales in 2009 started slow for the first 6 months but surged during the second half.    With a 5% increase in annual sales, a 33% year over year increase in 4th QTR sales, and a 20% decline in total inventory, our market continues to improve. In the low-mid priced markets supply has greatly decreased and demand has increased.   With low interest rates, lower prices, and tax incentives, more buyers are entering the market.   With declining inventory levels in many price points sellers now have more leverage to position their home to sell quickly at a reasonable price.

3rd Quarter Colorado Springs Area Home Sales and Total Inventory

The 3rd quarter continued to show strength as the Colorado Springs market continues to improve.   Year over year, sales were up 13% while total inventory was down 21%!   The Laura Kaan Team has been very successful in the difficult conditions we are experiencing in part because we work hard to better understand the overall market conditions which enables us to better empower our clients to stay ahead of the market and not end up chasing it.   Below are a few basic market statistics for existing single family homes in EL Paso County in the 3rd Quarter.With a 13% increase in sales and a 21% decline in total inventory, our market is returning to œnormalized conditions.   In the low-mid priced markets supply has greatly decreased and demand has increased.   With low interest rates, lower prices, and tax incentives, more buyers are entering the market.   With declining inventory levels in many price points sellers now have more leverage to position their home to sell quickly at a reasonable price.

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